Time Series Analysis of Google Online Search Trends and Reported Cases of HIV in Nigeria
Vivian Ukamaka Nwokedi *
Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria.
Okabeonye Sunday Agbo
Department of Applied Biology and Biotechnology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, Enugu State University of Science and Technology, Nigeria.
Enibokun Theresa Orobator
College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
Caleb Otabil
Department of Public Health and Speech-Language Pathology & Audiology, The School of Education, Health and Human Behavior, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, United States.
Nichodemus Chinedu Nnamani
Department of Clinical Pharmacy and Pharmacy Management, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Nigeria Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria.
Maryann Chinyere Ikeagwu
Department of Medical Laboratory Science, Faculty of Basic Medical Sciences, Ambrose Alli University, Edo State, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
The HIV epidemic in Nigeria remains a significant public health challenge, with reported cases rising despite control efforts. Understanding public interest in HIV-related topics through online search trends can provide valuable insights for monitoring and forecasting HIV trends. This study explores the relationship between online search trends for HIV-related terms and reported HIV cases in Nigeria from 2004 to 2023. Using Google Trends and UNAIDS databases, the study found significant correlations between online search trends and reported HIV cases, highlighting the potential of Google Trends data for monitoring public interest. However, time series forecasting revealed that Google Trends data did not significantly predict HIV case reports, suggesting its limitations as a predictive tool. Overall, online search trends reflect public interest in HIV-related topics but may not directly predict actual HIV prevalence in Nigeria.
Keywords: HIV, AIDS, google trends, public health surveillance, Nigeria, digital epidemiology, HIV monitoring, forecasting